Bitcoin has fallen more than 43,600 points in the past seven months. Bitcoin briefly recovered to $30,000 and moved above the 1H MA100 average. Bitcoin, the most valuable crypto asset, has had a tough week, with its price briefly falling below $25,000, causing panic across the crypto asset market. Technical indicators suggest a possible market bottom between $22,380 and $15,110.
Bitcoin appears to have found temporary support around the psychological $30,000 level, but could yet fall again.
Bitcoin's market value has fallen more than 43,600 points in the past seven months. It hit a record high of nearly $69,000 in early November 2021 and recently hit a multi-year low of $25,365. Despite the losses, bitcoin's steep decline is most likely not over yet.
The net unrealized profits/losses (NUPL) indicator can help predict shifts in sentiment and predict tops and bottoms in the bitcoin market. It relies on multiple on-chain data points to show the mood of potential holders at a given time, which helps determine price movements.
After the price fell below $30,000, market sentiment around bitcoin seems to have shifted from anxiety to fear. NUPL, however, suggests that holders' mood must shift from anxiety to compromise to mark the end of the downward trend.
Benjamin Cowen highlighted logarithmic regression analysis lines and identified two key price levels at which bitcoin could bottom. The non-bubble fitting regression line is $22,380, while the non-bubble downtrack hovers around $15,110. A decline in these price points could cause NUPL to shift into capitulation, providing a unique opportunity for marginalized holders to re-enter the market.
It remains to be seen whether the combination of NUPL and logarithmic regression will be as helpful in predicting market bottoms as it has been before. It's also worth noting that after the major correction bitcoin has undergone over the past few months, it has an opportunity to move into a consolidation period before the next big price move.
BTC's rise will be blocked
After breaking below support at $25,000, bitcoin rebounded. It broke through $28,000 and will climb further. Despite breaking support at $30,000, the bulls were able to push prices above $31,000. However, the bullish stance was not sustained and THE price of BTC subsequently fell.
Bitcoin broke the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line from its volatility low around $28,600 to $31,390. It is now approaching support around $30,400. The hourly chart for the BTC /USD pair shows key support around $30,400. The next important support level is around $30,000.
A break below support at $30,000 could trigger further declines to support at $29,000. The next important support level is around $28,000, which could be a potential new leg down.
What's next for Bitcoin?
If bitcoin breaks through the $30,000 support zone, it could trigger a new rally. The most intuitive pressure level is around $31,000.
The next major resistance levels are around $31,400 and $32,500, respectively, and could move further to $33,000 if those levels are significantly breached.
Despite the near-collapse of UST and Terra, crypto enthusiasts remain hopeful. Net bitcoin traffic across all trading platforms has hit its lowest level in nearly eight months, according to CryptoQuant data. This shows that bitcoin reserves are increasing and there is buying pressure. Whenever there is buying pressure, it is an indication that many traders are bullish.
Meanwhile, long BTC Whale positions on Bitfinex are at an all-time high. This suggests that investors expect prices to rise within a certain period of time, so they do not choose to sell. According to a leading cryptocurrency analyst, experienced traders have already taken long positions at current bitcoin prices.